000			01941nam a22002657a 4500
003			ZW-GwMSU
005			20241127112542.0
008			241127b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
022			_a03128962
040			_aMSU _bEnglish _cMSU _erda
050	0	0	_aHD31 AUS
100	1		_aYao, Juan _eauthor
245	1	0	_aPredicting the directional change in consumer sentiment/ _ccreated by Juan Yao, Graham Partington and Max Stevenson
264	1		_aLos Angeles : _bSage, _c2013.
336			_2rdacontent _atext _btxt
337			_2rdamedia _aunmediated _bn
338			_2rdacarrier _avolume _bnc
440			_aAustralian journal of management. _vVolume 38, number 1
520	3		_aThe Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a widely monitored economic indicator. The index measures consumer expectations, which contain information about potential future changes in consumer spending. Thus, any change in the dynamics of the sentiment index should contain important signals about future consumer behaviour, as well as changes in the real economy and stock returns. In this paper we use Cox’s proportional hazards model to estimate dynamic transition probabilities for a reversal in the CSI. We predict the probability of both positive and negative runs in sentiment surviving in the same state. Lagged changes in consumer sentiment and the frequency of recent reversals of sentiment are found to be significant predictors of a change in state. The model has substantial predictive ability, as measured by both categorical accuracy and a probability scoring rule, the Brier Score (Brier, 1950) out of sample. The predictive accuracy of the model is robust to the impact of the global financial crisis.
650			_aConsumer confidence index _vPrivate consumption _xForecasting model
700	1		_aPartington, Graham H. _eco author
700	1		_aStevenson, Maxwell John _eco author
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.1177/0312896211434573
942			_2lcc _cJA
999			_c168420 _d168420