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040 _aMSU
_bEnglish
_cMSU
_erda
050 0 0 _aHB139.T52 ECO
100 1 _aMagdalinos Tassos
_eauthor
245 1 0 _aLimit theory for cointegrated systems with moderately integrated and moderately explosive regressors
_ccreated by Tassos Magdalinos and Peter C.B. Phillips
264 1 _aCambridge:
_bCambridge University Press,
_c2009
336 _2rdacontent
_atext
_btxt
337 _2rdamedia
_aunmediated
_bn
338 _2rdacarrier
_avolume
_bnc
440 _aEconometric theory
_vVolume 25, number 2
520 3 _aAn asymptotic theory is developed for multivariate regression in cointegrated systems whose variables are moderately integrated or moderately explosive in the sense that they have autoregressive roots of the form ρni = 1 + ci/nα, involving moderate deviations from unity when α ∈ (0, 1) and ci ∈ ℝ are constant parameters. When the data are moderately integrated in the stationary direction (with ci < 0), it is shown that least squares regression is consistent and asymptotically normal but suffers from significant bias, related to simultaneous equations bias. In the moderately explosive case (where ci > 0) the limit theory is mixed normal with Cauchy-type tail behavior, and the rate of convergence is explosive, as in the case of a moderately explosive scalar autoregression (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007, Journal of Econometrics 136, 115–130). Moreover, the limit theory applies without any distributional assumptions and for weakly dependent errors under conventional moment conditions, so an invariance principle holds, unlike the well-known case of an explosive autoregression. This theory validates inference in cointegrating regression with mildly explosive regressors. The special case in which the regressors themselves have a common explosive component is also considered.
650 _aCointegration
_xTheory
700 1 _aPhillips, Peter C. B
_eco-author
856 _u10.1017/S0266466608090154
942 _2lcc
_cJA
999 _c164647
_d164647