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008			240327b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aMSU _bEnglish _cMSU _erda
050	0	0	_aHB139.T52 ECO
100	1		_aMcDermott, C. John ; _eauthor
245			_aThe New Zealand business cycle _cby Viv B. Hall and C. John McDermott
264	1		_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _c2009
336			_2rdacontent _atext _btxt
337			_2rdamedia _aunmediated _bn
338			_2rdacarrier _avolume _bnc
440			_aEconometric Theory _vVolume 25, number 4
520			_aThe current economic expansion is one of the more enduring in New Zealand’s post-war period. But is this a change from past behaviour? We examine New Zealand’s post-war business cycles for the sample period 1946 to 2005, using a newly developed 60-year quarterly time series for real GDP. The non-parametric Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm is used to derive Classical business cycle turning points, and to underpin the establishment of key cycle characteristics. The latter include cycle asymmetries, volatility, diversity and degree of duration dependence. Markov-switching models estimated by Gibbs-sampling methods (Kim and Nelson, 1999), are then used to derive mean growth rate and volatility regimes, and to draw implications. Results point to a return to a more rhythmic pattern of long expansions and short contractions, after that pattern was interrupted following the oil shocks of the 1970s and New Zealand’s reforms of the mid- to late-1980s and early 1990s. More rhythmic patterns should not be mistaken for a predetermined pattern, as duration test results show that cycle expansion paths do not age. This, together with the observation that rates of growth are not dissimilar across the more sustained expansion phases, implies that in order to enhance New Zealand’s prosperity, policies are required that extend business cycle expansions without allowing the excesses that undermine those expansions to build up
650			_aBusiness cycle _zNew Zealand
700			_aHall, Viv _eco-author
942			_2lcc _cJA
999			_c164584 _d164584