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008			230704b |||||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aMSU _cMSU _erda
100			_aUZEDA, Luis
245			_aDetection of anticipated structural changes in a rational expectations environment
264			_aNew York _bTaylor & Francis _c2013
336			_2rdacontent _atext _btxt
337			_2rdamedia _aunmediated _bn
338			_2rdacarrier _avolume _bnc
440			_aApplied Economics Letters _vVolume , number ,
520			_aWhen agents have rational expectations, anticipated changes in the structure of the economy have an immediate affect on their behaviour. In this article, we investigate the interplay between a linear rational expectation model with predictable structural changes and reduced-form evidence of structural breaks. In our study, we vary the length of time between the announcement and the implementation of an inflation target change. Using a model similar to Ireland (2007) and the method presented in Bai and Perron (1998) and Bai and Perron (2003) to estimate unknown structural breaks, Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that reduced-form evidence of structural breaks are broadly in line with what is predicted by forward-looking rational expectation models; that is, as the transition period increases, break estimates gradually move farther from the policy announcement date.
650			_aDSGE model
650			_ainflation target
650			_amonte carlo simulation
700			_aJONES, Callum
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.791033
942			_2lcc _cJA
999			_c162899 _d162899