Efficiency and future trading-price nexus in Indian commodity futures market by Pravakar Sahoo and Rajiv Kumar

Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macroeconomy with better resource allocation. Though the volume of commodity futures trade increased exponentially after the withdrawal of prohibition in 2003, the functioning of futures markets came under scrutiny during 2006–07 due to price rise and the government has proposed to impose transaction tax by 0.017 per cent on trading volume in the 2008–09 budget. In this context, we examine the efficiency and futures trading-price nexus for five top selected commodities namely gold, copper, petroleum crude, soya oil, and chana (chickpea) in commodity futures markets in India. Our results suggest that the commodity futures market is efficient for all five commodities. Further, we do not have sufficient evidence to support that futures market leads to higher inflation.