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Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts created by Jan-Christoph Rülke and Christian Pierdzioch

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextSeries: Applied economics letters ; Volume 20, number 5New York: Taylor & Francis, 2013Content type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
ISSN:
  • 13504851
Subject(s): LOC classification:
  • HB1.A666 APP
Online resources: Abstract: The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09.
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Holdings
Item type Current library Call number Vol info Copy number Status Notes Date due Barcode
Journal Article Journal Article Main Library - Special Collections HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Vol. 20, no. 5 (pages 489-494) SP17976 Not for loan For In House Use Only

The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09.

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