TY  - BOOK
AU  - Rulke Jan - Christoph
AU  - Pierdzioch Christian
TI  - Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts
SN  - 13504851
AV  - HB1.A666 APP 
PY  - 2013///
CY  - New York
PB  - Taylor & Francis
KW  - Currency crises
KW  - Uncertainty
KW  - Private sector forecasts
N2  - The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.716149
ER  -