Japan's long-term economic challenges created by Edward J. Lincoln

The other papers in this symposium on Japan address a number of important challenges facing the Japanese economy, including deflation, the continuing rapid accumulation of government debt, and the slowdown in productivity growth. All of these issues will be played out against the backdrop of an extraordinary demographic transition that makes solutions more difficult. With a total population that is already shrinking, Japan is heading into uncharted territory for an advanced industrialized nation. All that economists know about growth is based on data from economies that have had growing populations since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. A shrinking population raises new and difficult issues. This paper addresses some of the issues now confronting Japan.