The role of technology management in the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions from household Energy use in sub-Saharan Africa created by Robert Bailis, Majid Ezzati, and Daniel M. Kammen

The authors analyzed the dynamics of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from household fuel use in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2050. The scenarios included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, in which fuel consumption and tree-harvesting practices change little except through population growth and urbanization, and large-scale shifts to charcoal- and petroleum-based fossil fuels. The authors also considered the role of charcoal production technologies and sustainability of biomass harvesting. GHG emissions from the various scenarios varied by a factor of 4, with the lowest emissions in the BAU fuel-use scenario with charcoal production and sustainable biomass harvesting and the highest in the charcoal fuel scenario without sustainable harvesting and charcoal production. In only two scenarios, those with sustainable biomass harvesting and charcoal production, the emissions had an inverted-U pattern. Therefore, an inverted-U pattern was highly dependent on technology and policy instruments.