Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of corporate executives’ forecasts

By:

TSUCHIYA, Y

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Applied Economics Letters ; Volume , number ,New York Taylor & Francis 2013Content type:

text

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unmediated

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Summary: Although most research on directional analysis focused on either increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration of variables of interest, we jointly evaluate the two-directional changes in the real GDP predicted by corporate executives. We applied an approach recently developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009) in addition to the tests extensively used in the literature. Besides determining that, the forecast is not useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in real GDP, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Further, we examine the two data vintages.

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Item type	Current library	Call number	Vol info	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Journal Article	Main Library - Special Collections	HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Vol.20 , No.10 - 12 (Aug 2013)	Not for loan	For In House Use Only

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Although most research on directional analysis focused on either increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration of variables of interest, we jointly evaluate the two-directional changes in the real GDP predicted by corporate executives. We applied an approach recently developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009) in addition to the tests extensively used in the literature. Besides determining that, the forecast is not useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in real GDP, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Further, we examine the two data vintages.

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