Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts created by Jan-Christoph Rülke and Christian Pierdzioch

By:

Rulke Jan - Christoph [author]

Contributor(s):

Pierdzioch Christian [author]

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Applied economics letters ; Volume 20, number 5New York: Taylor & Francis, 2013Content type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

ISSN:

13504851

Subject(s):

Currency crises -- Uncertainty -- Private sector forecasts

LOC classification:

HB1.A666 APP

Online resources:

Click here to access online

Abstract: The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09.

Reviews from LibraryThing.com:

Tags from this library: No tags from this library for this title. Log in to add tags.

Average rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Call number	Vol info	Copy number	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Journal Article	Main Library - Special Collections	HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Vol. 20, no. 5 (pages 489-494)	SP17976	Not for loan	For In House Use Only

Browsing Main Library shelves, Shelving location: - Special Collections Close shelf browser (Hides shelf browser)

Previous	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	No cover image available	Next
Previous	HB1.A666 APP Real interest rate parity in OECD countries: New evidence from time series and panel cointegration techniques	HB1.A666 APP Constructing confidence bands for the Hodrick–Prescott filter	HB1.A666 APP Was there an option-listing effect for the IRX options?	HB1.A666 APP Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts	HB1.A666 APP Do female/male distinctions in language matter? Evidence from gender political quotas	HB1.A666 APP Market entry and economic diplomacy	HB1.A666 APP Salience and taxation: Salience effect versus information effect	Next

The cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts has been used in recent research on currency crises as a measure of uncertainty over expected fundamentals. We argue that the cross-sectional dispersion of private-sector forecasts need not only reflect uncertainty over expected fundamentals but may also arise due to a deliberate scattering of forecasts. Using data on foreign exchange (FX) reserve forecasts for 11 South-American and Eastern-European countries, we report evidence of such a forecast scattering that seems more pronounced during the economic crisis of 2008/09.

There are no comments on this title.

to post a comment.

here