Are production managers’ forecasts useful? Joint evaluation and robustness

By:

TSUCHIYA, Y

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Applied Economics Letters ; Volume , number ,New York Taylor & Francis 2013Content type:

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unmediated

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Summary: We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.

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Item type	Current library	Call number	Vol info	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Journal Article	Main Library - Special Collections	HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Vol.20 , No. 13 - 15 (Oct 2013)	Not for loan	For In House Use Only

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We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.

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