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Are production managers’ forecasts useful? Joint evaluation and robustness

By: Material type: TextTextSeries: Applied Economics Letters ; Volume , number ,New York Taylor & Francis 2013Content type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
Subject(s): Online resources: Summary: We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.
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Item type Current library Call number Vol info Status Notes Date due Barcode
Journal Article Journal Article Main Library - Special Collections HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Vol.20 , No. 13 - 15 (Oct 2013) Not for loan For In House Use Only

We jointly evaluate the two directional changes (increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration) in monthly manufacturing production activity predicted by production managers using a new market-timing test. Besides determining that the forecasts are useful in predicting an increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration in monthly production activity, joint evaluation of the forecast illustrates the advantage of the new test. Moreover, we find that the results are broadly robust to two data vintages and outlying observations.

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