On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: the Spanish PwC Survey/ created by Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

By:

Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón [author]

Contributor(s):

Ramos-Herrera, Maria del Carmen [author]

Material type: Text

TextSeries: Applied economics letters ; Volume 20, number 2New York: Taylor and Francis, 2013Content type:

text

Media type:

unmediated

Carrier type:

volume

ISSN:

13504851

Subject(s):

Exchange rates -- Forecasting -- Expectations

LOC classification:

HB1.A666 APP

Online resources:

Click here to access online

Abstract: We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectation formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the short run and destabilizing expectations in the long run.

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Holdings
Item type	Current library	Call number	Vol info	Copy number	Status	Notes	Date due	Barcode
Journal Article	Main Library - Special Collections	HB1.A666 APP (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Vol. 20, no.2 (pages 107-110)	SP17971	Not for loan	For in house use only

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We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectation formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the short run and destabilizing expectations in the long run.

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